Israel’s political ground is once again trembling—not from rockets, but from within its own halls of power. As war wages on in Gaza, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government is on the brink of implosion, triggered not by an enemy abroad but a centuries-old debate at home: military conscription.
This week, a member of Netanyahu’s own right-wing coalition issued a stark ultimatum. The ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party warned it would quit the cabinet and throw its weight behind an opposition-led no-confidence vote—one that could dissolve the Knesset and force early elections—unless it secured last-minute concessions to formalize draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men.
The flashpoint? A law that has allowed ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students to skip Israel’s mandatory military service since the country’s founding. For over seven decades, the exemption was considered sacrosanct. But in recent years, especially under the scrutiny of Israel’s Supreme Court—which ruled the exemption unconstitutional—the public consensus has shifted dramatically.
Polls suggest a majority of Israelis now support universal conscription, including for the Haredim, the insular religious community whose sons typically dedicate their lives to Torah study rather than military duty. But Netanyahu’s coalition—already stitched together from a precarious patchwork of ideologically disparate parties—is showing signs of unraveling.
On one side are the ultra-Orthodox lawmakers, who hold 18 of the coalition’s 68 seats and have already boycotted parliamentary votes for weeks in protest. On the other, more secular and nationalist factions are warning that any move to preserve the exemption could push them to walk away. Netanyahu stands in the middle, facing a decision that could cost him his coalition—or his power.
Adding fuel to the fire, Israel’s main opposition party, led by former Prime Minister Yair Lapid, has filed a formal motion for a vote of no confidence, scheduled for next week. Previous attempts to topple Netanyahu’s government have failed. But this time, internal fractures within the coalition could tip the scales.
“If the ultra-Orthodox parties join the opposition,” one Knesset insider warned, “Netanyahu’s government will fall.”
The stakes couldn’t be higher. Netanyahu is already under siege on multiple fronts—still reeling from public fury over the Hamas-led October 7 attacks that left 1,200 Israelis dead, and facing mounting pressure from families of hostages still held in Gaza. Protests calling for their release grow louder by the day, with critics accusing the prime minister of moral failure.
“After 63 days of war, it’s clear this government has not done, and will not do, what’s necessary to bring our people home,” a hostage family spokesperson declared. “Netanyahu is abandoning our loved ones for his own political survival.”
For now, the prime minister has remained publicly silent, avoiding comment as closed-door negotiations reportedly continue in a bid to hold the coalition together. But political analysts agree: the clock is ticking.
If the ultra-Orthodox walk out and early elections are triggered—possibly more than a year ahead of schedule—polls suggest Netanyahu could face an uphill battle to remain in power. His approval ratings have plummeted since October. And for many Israelis, the frustration is no longer partisan. It’s existential.
“This Knesset is finished,” Lapid said. “All it has brought is bereavement, crisis, and pain.”
The coming week may determine more than just the fate of a government. It could reshape the balance of power in Israel’s volatile political landscape—and test whether Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister in the country’s history, can survive yet another reckoning.
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